December 5, 2024

Analyzing the major deals of the MLB trade deadline with insights from Keith Law


I’ve written over a dozen articles breaking down various trades at this year’s deadline, focusing, of course, on the trades that involved prospects. Here’s a rundown of all of the trade breakdowns I’ve written with an excerpt from each and links to all of the full stories.


Dodgers land biggest deadline prize in Jack Flaherty, Tigers get upside but also risk

Deal details: Los Angeles Dodgers acquire RHP Jack Flaherty from the Detroit Tigers for C/1B Thayron Liranzo and SS Trey Sweeney

Takeaway: “The best prospect traded at the deadline turned out to be a Dodgers catcher, but not the one I guessed it would be. The Tigers picked up Thayron Liranzo for right-hander Jack Flaherty, a deal that looks good from both sides, as the Dodgers used one of their organizational strengths (catching depth) to go fill one of their major-league roster’s biggest needs (a starting pitcher with a pulse).

“When I sat down to write up this trade, I thought it was a good pickup for the Dodgers. Now I think it’s a fantastic one.

“Liranzo for a two-month rental of Flaherty is a reasonable return, because of his upside, but there’s a real risk of a zero return here because he has so much development ahead of him.”

Full story: 

Deal details: Houston Astros acquire LHP Yusei Kikuchi from the Toronto Blue Jays for RHP Jake Bloss, OF Joey Loperfido and IF Will Wagner

Takeaway: “The Blue Jays appear to be bowing to the inevitable and trading off their impending free agents, this time sending off disappointing starter Yusei Kikuchi to the Astros for a three-player return that might be the best value any seller has received so far at the deadline. Houston certainly could use some starting pitching depth, but this might have made it harder for them to acquire anything else they’ll need.”

Full story: 

Deal details: In a three-team deal, the St. Louis Cardinals acquire RHP Erick Fedde and OF Tommy Pham, the Los Angeles Dodgers acquire UT Tommy Edman, RHP Michael Kopech and RHP Oliver Gonzalez, and the Chicago White Sox acquire IF/OF Miguel Vargas, IF Alexander Albertus and 2B Jeral Perez.

Takeaway: “I don’t know how the Cardinals managed to pull this off, but they get a very good and wildly underpaid starter in ($15 million total for 2024-25) plus a decent bench bat while giving up only a single prospect, a 17-year-old pitcher in the DSL. The Cardinals only have four regular starters, with Miles Mikolas below-average and Lance Lynn below replacement level and potentially a free agent after the year, so getting Erick Fedde helps them this year as they try to claim a wild-card spot while also setting them up well for 2025.

“The Dodgers did that thing they do where they insert themselves into someone else’s trade to get a player or two they covet and who, with the help of some Dodgers Devil Magic, will turn into a star in a year.

“The White Sox get a couple of potential everyday players in the trade, something they desperately need (along with, well, everything else).”

Full story: 

Deal details: San Diego Padres acquire LHP Tanner Scott and RHP Bryan Hoeing from the Miami Marlins for LHP Robby Snelling, RHP Adam Mazur, IF/OF Graham Pauley and 2B Jay Beshears

Takeaway: “In for a penny, in for a pound, I suppose. The Padres traded away their top pitching prospect, Dylan Lesko, over the weekend, and now they’ve traded their next two (going by their pre-draft system rankings) pitching prospects, Robby Snelling and Adam Mazur, as well as two position player prospects, Graham Pauley and middle infielder Jay Beshears, to add more relief help from the Marlins in Tanner Scott and Bryan Hoeing.

“The return for the Marlins looks huge on paper … but the three main players they’re getting have all regressed this season.”

Full story: 

Padres pay heavily to Rays for bullpen upgrade in Jason Adam

Deal details: San Diego Padres acquire RHP Jason Adam from the San Diego Padres for RHP Dylan Lesko, CF Homer Bush, Jr. and C J.D. Gonzalez

Takeaway: “The Padres are pushing for a playoff berth this year and don’t have a lot of obvious spots to upgrade the roster, unless an elite starter becomes available, so bolstering the bullpen is a sound strategy that ordinarily shouldn’t cost that much. The price they paid to acquire right-hander Jason Adam from the Rays, however, seems very steep, as it included Dylan Lesko, who was their No. 1 pitching prospect just this past winter but is in the midst of a miserable season that has greatly decreased his value in the eyes of the industry.”

Full story: 


Jazz Chisholm Jr. jumped right into the Yankees’ lineup after the deal. (Winslow Townson / Getty Images)

Yankees get a boost from Jazz Chisholm trade — and give the Marlins the blues

Deal details: New York Yankees acquire IF/OF Jazz Chisholm Jr. from the Miami Marlins for C Agustín Ramirez, IF Jared Serna, and OF/IF Abrahan Ramirez

Takeaway: “The Yankees will see an immediate benefit from Jazz Chisholm Jr., as their offense has gone south and they have multiple positions where he’d be an upgrade. He’s also under team control for two more years, so while I think he’s really underachieved when you consider his physical gifts, the Yankees may see something they can do to get him to that next level of production.

“For the Marlins, the Jazz age ends with a whimper; they gave up Zac Gallen — now one of the best starters in baseball — to acquire Chisholm, but send him away for three fringe prospects.”

Full story: 

Cubs address third-base problem with Isaac Paredes acquisition

Deal details: Chicago Cubs acquire 3B Isaac Paredes from the Tampa Bay Rays for 3B Christopher Morel, RHP Ty Johnson and RHP Hunter Bigge

Takeaway: “The Cubs picked up right-hander Nate Pearson the other day from the Toronto Blue Jays for two very fringy prospects, and now they add Isaac Paredes for not a whole lot more than that, adding a third baseman who has three more full seasons to go before he’s eligible for free agency … although I’d bet he’ll be replaced before that time arrives.

“The Rays get three players in return for Paredes, one a project and the others probably just relievers in the long term. Thus far in their sell-off, they have accumulated bodies but by and large aren’t getting high-end prospects in return.”

Full story:

Deal details: Seattle Mariners acquire OF Randy Arozarena from the Tampa Bay Rays for OF Aidan Smith, RHP Brody Hopkins and a PTBNL

Takeaway: “The deal that sent outfielder Randy Arozarena to Seattle for three prospects seems like a real win-win, helping the Mariners’ playoff odds this year and next while giving the Rays two Low-A prospects who project to major-league value.”

Full story: 

Deal details: Cleveland Guardians acquire OF Lane Thomas from the Washington Nationals for LHP Alex Clemmey, SS José Tena and IF Rafael Ramirez Jr.

Takeaway: “Cleveland needed outfield help, and more generally some offensive help, and they turned out to be one of the teams that lined up the best with the Nationals, who’ve been willing to trade Lane Thomas but didn’t want to let him go for the price of a platoon bat. As a result, the Guardians paid a hefty price for a player who clearly helps them, and the Nats do very well for a player who’s been great for them for almost two years now but who’s about to get squeezed out by younger talent.”

Full story: 

Zach Eflin gives Orioles much-needed rotation boost at minimal cost

Deal details: Baltimore Orioles acquire RHP Zach Eflin from the Tampa Bay Rays for outfielder Matthew Etzel, infielder/outfielder Mac Horvath and RHP Jackson Baumeister

Takeaway: “Zach Eflin has been down a bit this year from his breakthrough season in 2023, but the addition of the right-hander still gives the Orioles exactly what they need: an above-average starter who can give them some innings because he’s efficient. Even the version of Eflin we’ve seen in 2024 is an upgrade and gives them a better option to start a third playoff game than Dean Kremer or the surprising Albert Suárez.

“This is a light return for a year-plus of Eflin, given he was one of the best pitchers in the American League last year and at least some of his decline this year is just random. The Rays get three prospects back, none of whom projects to a regular role.”

Full story: 

Deal details: Philadelphia Phillies acquire RHP Carlos Estévez from the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for RHP George Klassen and LHP Samuel Aldegheri

Takeaway: “The Angels are finally selling, and their first move seems to be a strong one, as they dealt a reliever they don’t need and who’s heading for free agency for two solid pitching prospects. Meanwhile, the Phillies get another quality arm for their bullpen, and they capitalize on player development’s great work with one of the two prospects they traded, although I think this is a steep price for a rental reliever.”

Full story:

A’s grade out well in two deadline deals with Royals and Mets

Deal details: Kansas City Royals acquire RHP Lucas Erceg from the Oakland A’s for RHP Mason Barnett, RHP Will Klein and OF Jared Dickey.

New York Mets acquire RHP Paul Blackburn from the Oakland A’s for RHP Kade Morris

Takeaway: “Good for the Royals for leaning into their hot start and pushing for the playoffs, but doing so in a way that hasn’t touched the top end of their farm system. With the just-acquired Hunter Harvey now hurt, the Royals can use any live bodies they can get for high-leverage work. Erceg had less than a year of service time coming into 2024, so the Royals have him under team control through the 2030 season, not that we should be projecting relievers out that far.

“Blackburn gives the Mets some length in their rotation, more important now that it’s clear Kodai Senga is out for the year, although it’s more about giving the better starters some extra time rather than bolstering the playoff rotation.

“The A’s ended up with two potential big-league starters along with a high-end relief arm in the two deals.”

Full story:

Deal details: Boston Red Sox acquire RHP Quinn Priester from the Pittsburgh Pirates for 2B/OF Nick Yorke

Takeaway: “The Red Sox and Pirates engaged in a real rarity — a one-for-one trade of young players, almost a ‘challenge trade,’ although I think that term doesn’t apply perfectly when it’s a pitcher for a position player. You could see it as a matter of comparative advantage: The Pirates have plenty of starting pitching right now but need bats, while the Red Sox have plenty of bats now and in the near future but need younger arms, and Boston has shown they can help young pitchers get better.

“Regardless, it’s a fascinating trade that could certainly be a win-win but could easily end up lopsided in either direction, more so than any other trade so far at this deadline.”

Full story: 

Notes on Wilfredo Lara, Jacob Bresnahan and other prospects in smaller deadline trades

Summary: “I’ve covered the prospects involved in several of the higher-profile deals at this year’s trade deadline, but there were some other notable names moved in a few of the lower-profile deals. Included are a couple of quick hits on some other deals involving good or interesting prospects.”

Full story: 

Additional reading

(Top photo illustration of Jack Flaherty (left) and Erick Fedde (right): Junfu Han, David Banks / USA Today)



Source