Lakers depth chart predictions: Rui Hachimura or Jarred Vanderbilt as the fifth starter?

Over a month into the NBA offseason, little has changed with the Los Angeles Lakers’ roster.

In are rookies Dalton Knecht and Bronny James. Out are Taurean Prince and Spencer Dinwiddie. Los Angeles has yet to sign a free agent or make a trade, joining Boston and Cleveland as the only three teams not to add a player through either roster-building tool.

The primary alteration has come on the sideline, with JJ Redick replacing Darvin Ham as head coach in a move the Lakers hope will lead to them maximizing this version of the roster.

But before the Lakers make any potential changes — if they make any at all — it’s time to evaluate the current roster. Here’s a look at Los Angeles’ potential depth chart if the season started tomorrow:

(Positional notes: Russell, Vincent and Hood-Schifino can play shooting guard in two-point-guard lineups; Reaves can scale down to point guard; Christie and Reddish can scale up to small forward; Knecht can also play shooting guard; Hachimura and Vanderbilt are interchangeable as starters and backup power forwards; Hayes or Wood can play alongside Davis in two-big lineups.)

Why Hachimura over Vanderbilt?

Four starting spots are cemented. The fifth comes down to Rui Hachimura versus Jarred Vanderbilt.

After Hachimura replaced Taurean Prince in the starting lineup on Feb. 3, the Lakers closed last season 22-10 —a 56-win pace. Over that span, they had the league’s third-best offense and fifth-best record (fourth-best in the West). Hachimura quintuples down on the rest of the lineup’s offensive firepower and creates one of the league’s most difficult lineups to defend. There is no hiding spot.

The downside to starting Hachimura is the defensive ask. While L.A.’s forward spots are technically interchangeable, it’s unreasonable to ask LeBron James to defend an opponent’s top-scoring wing given his age and mileage. That means that responsibility falls on Hachimura, who struggles against quicker and more athletic wing scorers. With Hachimura as the fifth starter, the Lakers’ goal would essentially be to try to outscore their opponents (which worked well last season until the Denver series).

Meanwhile, Vanderbilt is the team’s best perimeter defender, and provides an injection of length, athleticism and motor that the starters need. Vanderbilt brings a two-way harmony to the opening group. The Lakers previously had success with him as the starter after the trade deadline in 2022-23, going 17-7 with him as a starter (a 58-win pace) and posting a plus-20.6 net rating when he played with Anthony Davis, James, Austin Reaves and D’Angelo Russell.

At the same time, Vanderbilt is a glaring minus offensively. His role progressively diminished in each playoff series during the Lakers’ 2023 Western Conference finals run. Opponents ignore him outside of 10 feet and can often hide their weakest defenders on him. He improved as a cutter and screener in the weeks leading to his season-ending injury on Feb. 1 in Boston, but it’s unknown how much of that progress will carry over into Redick’s new offensive system.

There isn’t necessarily a right or wrong answer with the fifth starter. It’s a matter of preference. Do the Lakers lean into the offensive strengths of the starters with Hachimura? Or do they try to shore up their defensive weaknesses with Vanderbilt?

I tilt toward Hachimura because the Lakers paid him more last summer and wanted him to be the starter entering last season. He’s also been mentioned multiple times, publicly and privately, by the Lakers as a member of the young core alongside Reaves, Max Christie and Knecht.

Conversely, Vanderbilt has yet to be mentioned outside of Redick praising him in an interview with Lakers.com, though it’s worth noting Redick was directly asked about the 25-year-old forward. The difference in chatter about the two might not mean anything, but it’s one of the few kernels of information available, in addition to Hachimura’s more recent success as the starter.

Hachimura gets the edge for now, but it’s close. And I wouldn’t be surprised if this ultimately flips the other way by training camp.

Are the young wings ready?

Aside from Vanderbilt and Gabe Vincent theoretically being healthier than last season, the primary changes in the Lakers’ rotation are the promotion of Christie and the addition of Knecht. Christie, 21, and Knecht, 23, are the youngest members of the projected rotation.

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Christie, who is entering his third season, just re-signed with the Lakers on a four-year, $32 million deal. It’s a significant investment in a developing player who has yet to carve out a full-time rotation role. Christie will be entrusted with taking on more defensive responsibility alongside Davis, Vanderbilt and Vincent next season. He’s also been working on making reads against closeouts, which will be his primary form of offense. As a 40-plus-percent catch-and-shooter through two seasons, he has potential as a weak-side threat.

The Lakers are counting on a breakout from Max Christie. (Gary A. Vasquez / USA Today)

Knecht, the No. 17 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, showed he was NBA-ready in summer league. He’s arguably the best shooter on the team, even as a rookie, and will be a useful off-ball weapon for Redick coming off pindowns and curls. That said, he struggled defensively against G League-level (and lower) competition, so his defensive learning curve will determine his utility.

Either or both players could potentially be the pivot point in the rotation. If they can outperform the production of players like Prince, Spencer Dinwiddie and Cam Reddish from last season, the Lakers should have a stronger wing crop and even more shooting. If they underachieve expectations, the Lakers will remain a Play-In team or worse.

Who wins the backup center spot?

Backup center is the clear weak spot on the roster. Behind Davis, there is a lack of rim protection, physicality and, most importantly, reliability.

Jaxson Hayes and Christian Wood opted into their veteran’s minimum player options this summer, which is never a good sign. Both project as fringe rotation players (at best) for a decent team. They also both trend more toward the offensive end on a team that needs a defensive-minded big capable of spelling Davis for a shift or two per game.

The Lakers are aware of the weakness. About a month ago, Redick mentioned in an interview with Sirius XM NBA radio that the Lakers looked for center upgrades this offseason and will continue to do so.

“You certainly have to look at what I think is actually a very good roster, a very balanced roster,” Redick said. “We’d love to — we tried — but we’d love to, at some point, get another 5-man, a big, bruising 5-man. You look at the Western Conference right now, whether it’s Denver, Minnesota, OKC with what they added, certainly Memphis. They’re going to be back in the hunt. They added Zach Edey. Certain matchups in the playoffs, you’re going to need a lot of size.”

Of course, there is a clear limitation to the fit of a potential center if that player can’t shoot. Davis is still primarily a center offensively, though his defensive versatility allows him to play either center or power forward. That’s the strongest argument in favor of Wood, who is a better shooter than Hayes, even if he shot poorly last season.

Similar to the Hachimura and Vanderbilt conversation, choosing between Hayes and Wood is splitting hairs. Hayes is the athletic rim-runner who can struggle with fouls and backline defense. Wood is a walking bucket who is a solid rebounder but performs inconsistently defensively and in complex offensive schemes.

Hayes gets the nod because the Lakers played their best basketball of the season with him as the backup and Wood out of the lineup. In a broader sense, the Lakers were 14-8 in games Hayes played 15-plus minutes (.636 win percentage) and 19-13 in games Wood played 15-plus minutes (.594 win percentage). Hayes’ highs were slightly higher in terms of contributing to winning basketball, but again, it’s close.

Wood’s shooting and rebounding could shift that back in his favor. There’s also always the chance both bigs are in the rotation in two-big lineups and/or rotated nightly depending on the matchup.

How deep can the rotation go?

While the top-nine spots of the Lakers’ rotation are basically settled, the final six spots are concerning. Among the realistic playoff hopefuls in the Western Conference, the Lakers have arguably the worst 10-15 section of any roster.

There’s a reason why Wood, Hayes and Reddish opted into their veteran’s minimum player options. It’s a reflection of their market — or lack thereof. If not for the Lakers’ guaranteed offer, one or more could still be unsigned (Hayes almost certainly would’ve had multiple suitors).

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Beyond those three, the remaining roster players project to be at least a season, if not longer, away from contributing meaningful minutes.

Jalen Hood-Schifino was arguably the most disappointing first-round pick last season. Furthermore, he missed summer league while recovering from his season-ending back procedure. He’s expected to be back by the beginning of the season, but it was a valuable missed opportunity for reps and improvement.

Maxwell Lewis showed flashes of progress as a passer, step-back shooter and defensive playmaker, but it wasn’t consistent enough. He still has a ways to go.

And though Bronny James had an impressive end to summer league, at least by his modest expectations, the Lakers plan on using him primarily in the G League as he remains far from a rotation-caliber player.

Overall, that’s somewhere between four to six roster spots being used by players who probably won’t help the Lakers next season — if ever.

Can any of the young players make an unforeseen leap? Can veterans like Reddish and Wood buy more into their roles? Does Hayes have untapped potential at only 24?

It’s unlikely, which is why the Lakers need to upgrade this portion of the portion via a big or small trade.

If the Lakers remain largely healthy — possible but not a sound roster-building strategy — they should be fine. But the back end of the roster is problematic. As things stand, they’re in trouble if there’s an injury to any of their top nine, with none of the other six players capable of replacing the players they’re backing up.

(Top photo of LeBron James and Rui Hachimura: Harry How / Getty Images)