Should the Orioles trade top prospect Jackson Holliday?

It is not out of the question that the Orioles, a team that entered Wednesday with a 1 1/2 game lead in the American League East, will move some of their best prospects before Tuesday’s trade deadline to upgrade a thin starting pitching staff.

It is almost impossible, however, to see a scenario where that includes Jackson Holliday.

Holliday isn’t just the Orioles’ No. 1 prospect. He’s the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball. In an era where teams are increasingly hesitant to part with top young talent, the consensus top MLB prospect has been traded just once in the last 30 years.

That deal took place before the 2017 season, when the White Sox traded pitcher Chris Sale to the Red Sox in exchange for Yoán Moncada, Michael Kopech, Luis Alexander Basabe and Victor Diaz; at the time, Moncada was ranked as baseball’s top prospect by MLB.com and Baseball America. Then-Red Sox GM Dave Dombrowski pulled the trigger to give Boston the front-line starter it needed for the foreseeable future. (At the time of the deal, Sale would be under team control at $38 million over the next three years if two options were exercised.)

The Red Sox won the World Series in 2018 with Sale. The deal for the White Sox was well regarded at the time, and for years it seemed like Chicago had added a significant amount of value. Even in 2021, the website Baseball Trade Values still gave Chicago the edge in the swap. But we know now that Moncada, 29, has a career 14.5 WAR, and isn’t the kind of franchise-changing player he was projected to be.

Will Holliday be that kind of impact player? The Orioles front office under general manager Mike Elias — who took Holliday with the No. 1 overall pick in 2022 — has been excellent at drafting and developing young hitters, even those taken outside of the first round. Potential American League MVP candidate Gunnar Henderson, only 23 years old, wasn’t drafted until pick No. 42. Holliday is 20 years old, the son of former big leaguer Matt Holliday, and widely projected to be an All-Star-caliber player who could anchor the Orioles’ infield opposite Henderson for years to come. Baltimore gave Holliday a $8.19 million bonus, a record for a high school player.

Assuming the Orioles internally haven’t wavered in their evaluation of Holliday, there’s not a pitcher available at this year’s deadline worth trading him for, including oft-mentioned Tigers starter Tarik Skubal.

Holliday’s name seems to have come up in trade speculation because he’s at Triple A, having struggled in the mere 10 games he spent in the big leagues earlier this season. The list of big-league stars who struggled in their first call-up is long.

There is significant pressure for the Orioles, who had a disappointing first-round exit in last year’s postseason, to add to their pitching staff. Still, it seems wild to even discuss trading Holliday, who should be viewed as virtually untouchable.

Elias, who has rebuilt the Orioles faster and better than most observers could have imagined, has generally shown restraint when it comes to trading prospects, making only marginal moves at last year’s deadline in adding starter Jack Flaherty and reliever Shintaro Fujinami. It would be a surprise if the Orioles are that conservative again, particularly as Elias told reporters recently that the team’s new ownership has given its blessing to add to the payroll.

But there are multiple ways for the Orioles to upgrade their pitching staff without trading Holliday. They have the game’s best farm system. A combination of Samuel Basallo (Baltimore’s No. 2 prospect), Coby Mayo (No. 3) and Connor Norby (No. 5) should be enough to be in the conversation for anyone who is made available in the next six days. That could include Skubal, Garrett Crochet or — if the Rangers sell — Nathan Eovaldi. Baltimore could also dangle players on their current roster, including Ramón Urías or Jorge Mateo (whose health may be questionable after a Tuesday collision). Kyle Stowers is now at Triple A, but he has been up and down with the Os several times and would be a consistent big leaguer elsewhere.

Elias and the rest of the front office will have to make some tough decisions in the next few days about how to balance winning in 2024 with the organization’s long-term sustainability. Holliday, though, isn’t just part of the Orioles’ future; the expectation is he will be up with Baltimore again this season.

Top prospects will be moved in the next week, and it’s possible — particularly if the Tigers agree to deal Skubal — that a team’s No. 1 prospect will be included in the deal. In 2022, the Padres traded their No. 1 prospect both before the season, in C.J. Abrams, and midseason, when they moved Robert Hassel III to land Juan Soto. (At the time, neither player was viewed as one of baseball’s top five prospects.) Sometimes teams feel like they have to use their best chips.

The Orioles, however, shouldn’t have to. Both Basallo and Mayo are ranked among baseball’s top 15 and, with all due respect to Skubal and Crochet and whoever else may be available, there’s no player close to Soto’s value available at this year’s deadline.

This should be a big trade deadline for Baltimore. There should be no way it includes Holliday.

(Top photo: G Fiume / Getty Images)