Why rebuilding MLB teams such as White Sox, A’s and Tigers should trade their star pitchers

The White Sox need to trade their ace, Garrett Crochet; the Tigers need to trade their ace, Tarik Skubal; and the A’s need to trade their flamethrowing closer, Mason Miller, because the old way of rebuilding franchises into world champions went away with the creation of the draft lottery under the last collective bargaining agreement.

Of course, those teams may not end up “selling” their young pitching stars before the July 30 trade deadline. If they do, they must acquire significant prospect packages in return. But the low number of clear selling teams this close to the deadline and the dearth of elite arms available via trade, along with the deep farm systems of some buying teams in need of pitching, should tip the scales in their favor.

So as much as the White Sox, A’s and Tigers don’t want to part with their young, difference-making, controllable pitchers, those teams — in different stages of the rebuilding process — should seriously consider it if the right offer materializes.

Times have changed for rebuilding teams, and a big part of that change stems from the draft lottery system, which MLB introduced in 2023 after it was established in the new CBA. Before then, of course, the teams with the worst record got to pick at the top of the MLB Draft — for multiple years in a row if applicable — which gave them the opportunity to take much higher-percentage future superstars to build around and subsequently allowed them to turn around their franchises in five to six years.

This generation of rebuilding teams can’t do that. The draft lottery puts the top-six spots in each draft up for grabs and the accompanying rules designed to dissuade tanking are another impediment. (Teams that receive revenue-sharing payouts can’t get a top-six pick more than two years in a row; teams that do not receive revenue-sharing payouts can’t get a lottery pick in consecutive drafts; in addition, lottery-ineligible teams can’t select higher than 10th overall.)

I think the new system will lengthen the rebuilding process, from the five-to-six years it used to take to seven-to-eight years, unless teams go about it a different way. And that different way is now trading your best young impact players in their prime years and turning them into prospect packages of four to five future major leaguers.

Let’s pause for a quick refresher on some notable rebuilds:

The Nationals endured six consecutive losing seasons (2006-11) before they became a legitimate contender, eventually winning a world championship in 2019. One of the keys to their success was being able to draft Stephen Strasburg and outfielder Bryce Harper in back-to-back years, 2009 and 2010, with the No. 1 overall picks in the MLB Draft.

The Cubs suffered through five consecutive losing seasons (2010-14) before making the playoffs as a 97-win team in 2015, then ending a 108-year drought by winning the 2016 World Series. One of their keys was the selection of Kris Bryant with the second overall pick in the 2013 draft.

The Astros slogged through six consecutive losing seasons (2009-2014), including three straight 100-loss campaigns, before turning the tide and later winning the 2017 World Series. Their ability to draft Carlos Correa with the first overall pick in 2012 was vital.

More recently the Orioles, after five straight years of losing (2017-21), finished above .500 in 2022, won 101 games last year and this season are in a strong position to challenge for their first World Series since 1983. A major part of their turnaround was drafting Adley Rutschman with the first overall pick in 2019.

Back to the present day, where due to the lottery system the Cleveland Guardians, owners of the American League’s best record at the All-Star break, picked first in the recent draft and selected Travis Bazzana, who looks like a future impact player.

Simply put, it’s much more difficult for today’s rebuilding teams to acquire those types of stars through the draft, so to get those difference-making talents, they’ll more frequently need to trade their young stars. That’s how these teams can speed up their rebuild timelines from the seven-to-eight years it could now take. (The expanded playoffs, with three wild-card spots per league, could make for a quicker path back to the postseason, but I still think it will take seven to eight years for many rebuilding clubs to become true contenders.)

That brings us to the White Sox, A’s and, yes, the Tigers.

The White Sox have the worst record in baseball and could desperately use the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft, but because of the new lottery rules they’ll likely pick 10th overall next year. But they do have Crochet, one of the best trade chips of this deadline.

Crochet, 25, looks like a future front-of-the-rotation ace and Cy Young Award candidate. He’s logged a 3.02 ERA and 0.950 WHIP in 20 starts this season and leads the AL with 150 strikeouts. He’s controllable through 2026, but by the time the White Sox are ready to win, Crochet will likely be in his early 30s. The time to trade him is now, when his contract is affordable, his team control is lengthy, and his stock is at an all-time high.

It would take a haul to land him, but teams such as the Orioles, Yankees and Dodgers can afford the necessary prospect capital because their farm systems are so deep. The right return for Crochet could significantly move up the White Sox’s timeline.

Garrett Crochet has had a breakout season after making his first career start on Opening Day. (Matt Marton / USA Today)

The Tigers are obviously in better shape than the White Sox, with some key core players already in place for the future — All-Star outfielder Riley Greene, second baseman Colt Keith and starting pitcher Reese Olson — but they need a lot more to be perennial contenders. I don’t think they have enough talent on their major-league club or en route from their farm system to hold on to Skubal, who has a 2.41 ERA and 140 strikeouts in 116 innings and is arguably the front-runner for this year’s AL Cy Young Award.

Skubal would be a difference-maker for any contending team, down the stretch and in the playoffs, and the trade return for him would even be higher than that of Crochet. The Tigers’ ace is 27 years old and under team control through 2026, but if they could trade him for two everyday future players and a ready-now rotation piece, they’d have to consider it. For example, trading him to the Orioles for right fielder Heston Kjerstad or left fielder Colton Cowser along with third baseman Coby Mayo and left-handed pitcher Cade Povich would be a deal they couldn’t turn down. Now, that offer would probably be too steep for Baltimore, even though it would mean they’d retain their two top prospects, catcher Samuel Basallo and second baseman Jackson Holliday, but I offer it as context.

The Tigers have gotten back near .500 after winning 10 of their last 13 games, which could give them pause and lead to sitting tight rather than selling. But I view them as a .500 team, not a playoff team. And to give themselves a better chance of truly contending in the future, it’s worth seeing what a Skubal trade could net. Again, if it’s not an enormous haul that changes their trajectory, they don’t trade him, but that type of deal could be available.

(Even if the Tigers don’t trade Skubal, they should at least get a strong trade return for right-hander Jack Flaherty, who’s had a fantastic comeback season, posting a 3.13 ERA and 0.964 WHIP over 17 starts. Although he’s dealt with some back issues, Flaherty has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts.)

Mason Miller has a 2.27 ERA with 70 strikeouts and 14 walks in 39 2/3 innings. (Darren Yamashita / USA Today)

That brings us to the A’s, who in Miller have a potential trade chip that’s unique. He’s one of the best young closers to grace the game in a long time, with a 103 mph fastball, a wipeout slider and off-the-charts makeup to match. That combination, in a player who is more than five years from free agency, is unheard of.

Interestingly, when I asked Miller at the All-Star Game if he thought he’d eventually go back into the starting rotation, he answered, “Why would I? It’s working out pretty good where I’m at right now isn’t it?” Great point. I also learned he wants to close, not start and if that’s the case, the A’s should look to move him now as his trade value will never be higher. A team like the A’s that is several years away from winning — not to mention relocating to their new home in Las Vegas — can’t afford to keep any closer, even this unicorn, when they could instead use him to expedite their rebuild. Every contender, from the Orioles to the Yankees to the Braves to the Dodgers, is drooling over the idea of acquiring Miller for the back end of its bullpen. He turns nine-inning games into eight-inning games.

The Miller return would likely be similar to what the Tigers and White Sox could get for Skubal and Crochet because even though he’s a closer, his extra years of control add value and he has the potential to net the acquiring team another first-round pick if he wins AL Rookie of the Year.

Of course there’s a risk-reward factor with any trade, especially hard-to-find pitchers who are this talented. But many of today’s pitchers also come with injury risk, and these three have all spent significant time on the IL in the past.

A decade ago rebuilding teams wouldn’t even think about trading young, controllable impact pitchers like Crochet, Skubal and Miller, but the new CBA changed the landscape and clubs must change with it. They now must seriously weigh these types of deals to jump-start their rebuilds and move up their timelines to becoming winning organizations.